Zoë and Prof. Norman Fenton talk about his book ‘Fighting Goliath’
Bio
Norman Fenton is Professor Emeritus of Risk at Queen Mary University of London (retired as Full Professor Dec 2022) and a Director of Agena, a company that specialises in artificial intelligence and Bayesian probabilistic reasoning. A mathematician by training now focusing on quantifying risk and uncertainty using causal, probabilistic models that combine data and knowledge (Bayesian networks). He has published 7 books and over 400 peer reviewed articles. His work covers multiple domains including especially law and forensics (he has been an expert witness in major criminal and civil cases), and health. Since 2020 he has been active in analysing data related to Covid risk.
Show notes
I opened the podcast by saying how much I enjoyed Norman and Martin’s book – although it did give me a bit of PTSD (Post Traumatic Stress Disorder), as it took us through the Covid years chronologically and remembering some of what went on was still unfathomable.
The book narrative started on the 13th, March 2020 – when the Arsenal football manager was declared to have Covid and suddenly the UK premiership was under threat of closure. It covered the key issues from that date up to May 2024 – when the authors explored the gain of function theory. Some of the content was jaw dropping. The NFL (US National Football League) protocol should be stuck on a fridge somewhere to remind us that segregation has not been consigned to history.
I shared in the opening to the podcast that even though Norman (and Martin) are top mathematicians and there was some clever maths (which was very well explained) much of the ‘maths’ was common sense and pointing out stuff that should have been obvious.
E.g.1, People who thought they had Covid were mostly the ones being tested – that skewed the impression of the number of cases.
E.g.2, Notwithstanding the inaccuracy of the PCR test, the number of positive tests should have been divided by the number of people tested, to establish the infection rate. That error led to Christmas 2020 being cancelled.
E.g.3, Wales (my country, so of extra interest to me) was counting suspected cases. Other UK countries were counting confirmed cases. Wales had extraordinary hospitalisation figures. Whereas in England, Scotland and Northern Ireland, on average, around 4% of Covid-19 cases were admitted to hospital, for Wales the figure was 61%.
The book shared Norman and Martin’s calculations of the Infection Fatality Rate (a critical measure) from May 2020. They were far more accurate than public authorities. They cover Sweden vs UK – different lockdown approaches, little outcome difference. They share their submissions to parliament, their assessment of the Bangladesh mask study, did one in three people really have Covid with no symptoms? And more…
These were the questions I asked Norman.
- Tell us a bit about your co-author, Professor Martin Neil – how do you know each other?
- Why this book? Why now?
- We had SARS-CoV-1 – why was SARS-CoV-2 called Covid-19? (I had a question about PCR tests, but we covered PCR testing in this bit).
- We (Norman and I) were two rare beings who had major concerns about lockdowns from the start. Why were you concerned?
- When did you start looking at the vaccines? What did you discover? (I had a question about the UK Office of National Statistics (ONS) data, which was used worldwide, but we covered it in this bit).
- What do you think was going on during this era? Why were vaccines, for example, being pushed so hard on the whole population, right down to children, when it is known that products take years to be fully tested for safety and efficacy?
- Where did flu go? (Norman and Martin have different views on this issue).
- Was Covid novel and deadly?
- We were told that Covid was the greatest threat since WWII – why were all viewpoints not welcome? Why were data experts like you and Martin being censored?
- Do you think this will happen again? One of the most fascinating aspects of the podcast for me was Norman’s insights into academia – from the (Neil Fergson) model that achieved the March 2020 lockdown to the academic profession’s delight in authoritarian control. That was my single biggest takeaway from an open and informative 70 minute discussion.
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Fighting-Goliath-Exposing-statistics-COVID-19/dp/1068749830
https://www.amazon.com/Fighting-Goliath-Exposing-statistics-COVID-19/dp/1068749830
